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Forecasting Financial Crises (FOC)
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FOC is a Scientific Project Financed by FET OPEN Scheme in the field of Information and Communication Technology by the European Commission. The research topic is to understand and possibly forecast systemic risk and global financial instabilities

We want to provide a novel integrated and network-oriented approach to the issue. On one hand, we will offer a theoretical framework to measure systemic risk in global financial market and financial networks. On the other hand, we will deliver an ICT collaborative platform for monitoring systemic fragility and the propagation of financial distress across institutions and markets around the world. Experts will be able to evaluate algorithms and models to forecast financial crises as well as visualise interactively possible future scenarios.

Please note that any views and opinions expressed in this context are those of the author(s) and do not reflect the views of the ECB or the ESCB


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Scientific and Societal Vision. Nowadays, there is a consensus on the view that our current theoretical and technological frameworks are inadequate to understand, forecast and mitigate global systemic risks. A recent and striking example is the on-going financial crisis. In this respect, the European Central Bank (ECB) itself is worried about the fact the tools currently available to policy makers to monitor financial systems are insufficient. Such inadequacy is also among the major concerns of the European Commission, which has just created the European Systemic Risk Board.

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Technological Vision The technological vision of the project is that ICT's, and in particular those that leverage the collaborative aspects of knowledge sharing and action coordination, constitute our best instrument to tackle global issues such as systemic financial risk, climate change and pollution. Indeed, many global issues are instances of social dilemmas, in which the tragedy of the commons is a typical undesirable outcome. Thanks to the World Wide Web and in particular to the Web2.0 development, citizens enjoy more and more on-line presence and interaction, while sharing effort with peers has become easier than ever. Although, the danger of pitfalls such as the so called tragedy of the digital commons (Adar 2000) should not be underestimated, most of the potential of the current ICT's remains still to be exploited.


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